:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 20 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.  Solar wind speed
has been increasing steadily over the past 24 hours as a coronal
hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.  At
time of issue, the solar wind speed was approximately 500 km/s.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storming on
21 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  The
geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 22 and 23
October.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 071
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  015/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  010/020-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/02
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05