:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 21 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 917 (S05W33),
now spot class Cso with an expanded area, has been exhibiting
enhanced x-ray flux for the past eight hours and continues to do so
at time of issue.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active.  Solar wind
speed is elevated and currently 625 km/s due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 22 October due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.  Expect quiet to unsettled
conditions for 23 and 24 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 075
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/015-005/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05