:Product: 1022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 22 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 917 (S05W46)
now has a magnetic classification of Beta-gamma.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with one period of
minor storming.  Solar wind speed remains elevated though it has
been slowly and steadily decreasing.  Its current speed is
approximately 550 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.  An isolated period of minor storming is
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 076
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  008/008-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05