:Product: 1025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 25 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 917
(S05W86) continues to decay as it rotates off the west limb.  No
other spotted regions are visible on the solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.  An isolated
active period was observed at middle latitudes between 25/0600 and
0900Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 and 27 October.  A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 28 October.  Active to minor storm conditions can be
expected with the onset of the coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 075
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  004/005-010/010-018/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/40
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/45
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10