:Product: 1027RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Oct 27 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  A new region
emerged today, Region 919 (S15W01) consists of four sunspots
exhibiting a Bxo beta magnetic structure.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  Isolated major storm
conditions may be possible with the expected onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.  Isolated active conditions may
occur on 29 October as the coronal hole wanes.  A return to quiet to
unsettled conditions is expected on 30 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 072
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  018/025-008/015-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/15
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01