:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 02 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 922 (S14E31), the lesser
of the two active regions in the southeast, produced an impulsive C1
X-ray flare at 0423 UTC. The region grew during the day, as did its
nearby neighbor Region 921 (S06E16). Region 921 is a moderate sized
group of approximately 370 millionths, showing a substantial field
of bright plage. Frequent Type 3 radio bursts occurred throughout
the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is an increasing probability of an isolated M-class event
pending further development in Regions 921 and 922.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Activity increased
slightly with the very pronounced crossing of a sector boundary
midway though the day. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels once again.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the end of the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 088
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  007/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05