:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 921 (S08W24) produced
two C-class flares.  The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare at
05/1227Z.  A Type II radio sweep was reported at 05/1730Z.  Solar
observatories reported estimated shock speeds ranging from 1089
to 1541 km/sec.  Although no significant flare activity was
observed at this time, H-alpha imagery indicates a DSF may have
occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There remains a chance of an isolated C-class flare from
Region 921.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 085
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05