:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 08 0108 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  An active region rotating
around the east limb produced three C-class flares during the past
24 hours.  The largest of these was a C6 flare at 07/1346Z.  Bright
X-ray emission is seen above the east limb in GOES-13 SXI imagery,
and a very active loop structure is seen in EIT imagery.  Sunspots
are just now rotating onto the visible disk.  Two fast CMEs have
originated from this region during the past two days (both were in
the range of 1500-2000 km/s in SOHO LASCO imagery).  ACE SIS data
shows a slight enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV and 30 MeV
protons beginning soon after the CME that was observed in LASCO
imagery at 06/1842Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from the
region rotating onto the east limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 08 November.  Unsettled to active
conditions, with possible minor storm periods, are expected on 09-10
November.  The increase is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 087
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  005/005-015/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/25
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/45/35
Minor storm           10/30/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/10