:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 09 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 923 (S06E58)
produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours.  Region 921
(S06W78) is in decay and has not produced any activity today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 923.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed has
been steadily increasing throughout the day as the recurrent coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position, reaching approximately 400
km/s at time of issue.  The IMF strength also increased to
approximately 20 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 10 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on 10 November due to the coronal hole high speed
stream.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 11-12
November.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 089
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  010/020-007/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           25/11/11
Major-severe storm    10/05/05