:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 10 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 923 (S06E58) has
not produced any activity over the past 24 hours.  Region 921 has
rotated off the solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. 
Elevated solar wind speed due to the coronal hole high speed stream,
combined with Bz varying between +/- 10 nT, produced multiple major
storm periods at high latitudes.  Solar wind speed remains elevated
at approximately 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 11 November as the coronal
hole high speed stream wanes.  Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
on 12-13 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 091
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  030/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/015-005/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01