:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 12 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 923 (S04E21) produced
three C-class flares over the past 24 hours, the largest of which
was a C1.1 at 12/1046Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 923 may produce further C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed has
decreased steadily to about 500 km/s.  The greater then 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13 - 15
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 097
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01