:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 14 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S05W05)
produced occasional B-class flares. This region maintains it's
considerable size, but has become magnetically less complex over the
past 48 hours. Magnetic field maps confirm the sunspot cluster near
the southeast limb is two separate regions. Both these regions, 924
(S08E44) and 925 (S06E52), are small with simple magnetic
configurations.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 923.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream
is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods on 16
and 17 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 095
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  005/005-008/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/40
Minor storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10