:Product: 1115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 15 2207 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 924 (S08E28) produced a
C1 flare on 15/1901Z. This region was in decay, but new trailer
sunspots emerged late in the period. Region 923 (S05W20) still
maintains considerable size, but is in a slow decay phase. Region
925 (S05E38) is a small, simple beta group, which exhibited slight
growth.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Regions 923 and 924 have potential for isolated C-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active. A recurrent high speed
stream is expected to produce occasional unsettled to active periods
over the next thee days.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 096
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  008/010-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05