:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 16 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 923 (S05W33)
exhibits emergence of new flux just to the NE of its large penumbra.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Regions 923 (S05W33) and 924 (S08E16) continue to have
the potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period of minor storming
associated with a period of southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent high
speed stream.  An occasional active period is possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 094
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  010/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05