:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed, in
LASCO imagery, off the east limb at 20/1830 UTC. This event is
considered to be backsided and not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with isolated C-flares possible from Region 923 (S06W88), until
it rotates around the west limb on 21 November.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 November. On 23 November, quiet to
active conditions are possible as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream is expected to move into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 081
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  075/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  003/005-003/005-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05