:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 25 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Newly numbered
Region 926 (S08E71) is a magnetic Hkx alpha sunspot group that
rotated onto the visible disk during the period (old Region 921 S07
L=140).  Several B-class flares were produced by this region earlier
in the period.  Region 926 remains too close to the limb to
determine if a magnetic gamma structure exists.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.  Region 926 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storming at the higher latitudes
between 25/1200 and 1500Z.  The elevated conditions are due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to isolated active levels on 26
November.  Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 079
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  010/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  008/015-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01