:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 29 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from Region
927 (N10E32) at 1518Z. Region 927 continues to grow and has
developed some magnetic complexity: there appears to be a small
delta configuration in the dominant trailer spot. Region 926
(S10E19) is growing slowly but is magnetically simple and only
managed to produce one B-class flare during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
Region 927 is the most likely source for an isolated C-flare. There
is a very slight chance for an M-class event over the next three
days, especially if the growth trend in Region 927 continues.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with a chance for some unsettled
periods at high latitudes for the next three days (30 November - 2
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 085
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  007/005-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05