:Product: 1130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Nov 30 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares, all from Region 927 (N10E19).
The delta configuration reported yesterday appears to have decayed
during the past 24 hours. Region 926 (S10E09) was quiet and stable.
New Region 928 (S07W32) emerged on the disk today as a small C-type
group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during
the past 24 hours. An initially quiet field became disturbed after
0500Z due to an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic
field. Active to minor storm levels were observed initially but
there was a strong substorm interval from 0800-1000Z which increased
the level to major storm at some mid-latitude stations and severe
storm at some high latitude sites. Conditions have been at active to
minor storm levels since 1000Z. Solar wind signatures appear to be
most consistent with a solar sector boundary crossing, which was
also seen 27 days ago during the last solar rotation. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24 hours (1
December) as the current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be
predominantly quiet for the second and third days (2-3 December).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 084
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  007/015-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05