:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 04 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  An active region rotating onto
the east limb (S06) produced eight C-class flares during the past 24
hours.  The largest of these was a C4 flare at 04/1439Z.  Region 926
(S10W43) has decayed since yesterday and is now a Beta magnetic
group.  New Region 929 (N02E67) is classified as a Bxo-Beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 5 December.  Quiet to active conditions are
expected on 6 December, as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position.  Expect active to minor storm conditions,
with possible major storm periods, on 7 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 092
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  005/005-010/010-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/40
Minor storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/45
Minor storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15