:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 05 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  New Region 930 (S06E72)
produced an X9/2N flare at 05/1035Z.  There was a Type II radio
sweep  (estimated shock speed of 836 km/s) associated with this
flare, along with a Type IV sweep and a Tenflare.  The flare was
observed on the east limb from GOES-12 SXI imagery.  A CME was
probably associated with this event, however LASCO imagery was
unavailable to confirm this.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares.
In addition, there is a chance for another  X-class flare from this
region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.  However, a
solar sector boundary was seen at ACE beginning at about 05/1620Z,
and velocities were increasing at forecast issue time.  GOES proton
data showed an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons
beginning at  05/1530Z.  The maximum flux observed so far was 3.2
PFU at 05/2050Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 6 December.  Active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are expected on 7-8
December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     35/20/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 102
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 089
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  015/015-025/030-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10