:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 06 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 930 (S05E60) produced
an M6/SF flare at 06/0823Z and an X6/3B flare at 06/1847Z.  The M6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep and a Tenflare.  The X6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep, a Tenflare, and a Type
II radio sweep (estimated shock speed of 827 km/s).  A CME was
probably associated with this event, but LASCO imagery is
unavailable for confirmation.  Region 930 is now classified as a Dkc
group with an area of 490 millionths.  It is magnetically complex,
with an east-west inversion line and a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares and there is a
good chance for further X-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. 
Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 600 km/s, indicating
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux reached the event threshold of 10 pfu at 06/1555Z,
with a maximum observed flux so far of 24 at 2100Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 07 - 08 December with a chance
for periods of minor or major storm conditions due to the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 09 December.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue for at least another 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     95/70/50
PCAF       red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 103
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  020/025-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01