:Product: 1207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 930 (S06E45)
produced an M2 flare at 07/1913Z with a 2600 sfu Tenflare.  The M2
flare had an associated CME observed on the Mk4 K-Coronameter at
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory.  Region 930 remains a complex
moderate-sized sunspot group with a beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 930 is expected to produce further M-class
flares and there is a good chance for X-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with isolated
minor storm periods observed at high latitudes.  Solar wind speed is
unknown as the recent solar energetic proton events have
contaminated the ACE SWEPAM instrument, a condition expected to
continue until energetic proton fluxes subside.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 06/1555Z continues. The maximum
observed flux so far is 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z.  The greater than 100
MeV proton flux crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 07/0115Z, with
a maximum observed flux so far of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z.  The greater
then 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance
for major storm periods for the next three days (08 - 10 December). 
Although the magnetic cloud associated with the X9 flare and CME
observed on 05 December is not expected to impact earth, a shock
passage is likely; consequently, active to minor storm periods are
expected on 08 December.   CME activity associated with the M6 and
X6 flares on 06 December is expected to cause occasional major storm
periods late on 08 December and 09 December.  Disturbed conditions
are expected to continue through 10 December.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue through 09 December.  The
greater then 100 MeV proton event appears to have peaked and,
barring another injection of high energy protons, the event should
end on 08 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     99/80/65
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 096
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  015/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  030/030-040/050-030/040
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           30/40/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/35
Minor storm           35/45/35
Major-severe storm    20/30/25