:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 09 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 930 (S04E19) produced a
C1 flare at 09/1059Z.  Region 930 has further decayed and now has a
Beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 100
Mev proton event that began at 07/0115Z ended at 09/0735Z, and had a
maximum observed flux of 19 pfu at 07/1610Z.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event continues but is declining slowly.  It had a
maximum observed flux so far of 1980 pfu at 07/1930Z.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10 - 12
December).  The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end
on 11 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     95/60/30
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 092
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  017/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01