:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 10 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S05E06) was
only responsible for several B-class flares. However, this region
has developed a delta within the southern penumbra of the leader
spot and is now classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with
approximately 440 millionths of area.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE is
currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event crossed below 100 pfu's at 10/1220 UTC and is decreasing. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 11 December. On 12 and 13
December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end in the next 24
to 48 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    25/25/15
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     80/40/05
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 090
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01