:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 12 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S06W21) only
produced B-class activity, however, it remains a complex beta gamma
delta magnetic group. This region has increased in area to
approximately 680 millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for M-flare activity from Region 930.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods. Activity was due to enhanced solar wind speeds
coupled with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The greater than 10
MeV proton event crossed below 10 pfu's at 12/1040 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 December. On 14 December, quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods
possible. On 15 December, quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 102
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  010/015-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01