:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 13 2246 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05W33) produced
an X3.4/4B flare with a 44000 sfu 10 cm radio burst at 13/0240 UTC.
Type II (1534 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were associated with
this event, as well as a fast moving CME (estimated plane of sky
speed of 1500 km/s). Region 930 has a strong delta configuration in
the southern penumbral area of the leader spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to reach
moderate to high levels. Isolated X-class flares are possible from
Region 930.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels for the last 24
hours. A greater than 100 MeV proton event started at 13/0245 UTC,
and reached a maximum of 88.7 pfu at 13/0525 UTC. A greater than 10
MeV proton event started at 13/0250 UTC, and reached a maximum of
698 pfu at 13/0925 UTC. These events are associated with the X3
event from Region 930. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels. Activity from the
CME observed early on 13 December is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day 1 (14 December) of the
forecast period. Major to severe storm conditions are expected to
continue early into 15 December. Levels should decrease to unsettled
to minor storming by 16 December. The greater than 100 MeV and 10
MeV proton events now in progress are expected to continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/99/75
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 094
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  015/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  065/130-050/100-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    55/45/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    65/55/15