:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 14 2259 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 930 (S05W47) continues
to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  The region is
showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a
possibility.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels.  The ACE
satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356
UTC.  A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT.  Periods of major to severe
storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC.  Solar wind
speed is currently 900 km/s.  A 100 MeV proton event commenced at
13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended
at 14/1150 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310
UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu.  The
greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December.
This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December.  Unsettled
to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/30/30
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 093
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  040/070
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  040/045-012/020-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    50/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    60/10/10