:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 15 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 930 (S06W59) produced
an  X1.5/2B solar flare with a 510 sfu 10 cm radio burst at
14/2215Z.  Type II (1277 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were
associated with this event.  The flare was accompanied by a
frontside, asymmetrical, full halo CME with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 900 km/s.  Ejecta of this CME seems to be
predominately from the southwest sector of the halo.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remain a
possibility.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field reached severe storm levels.  A 100 MeV proton
event commenced 14/2255Z, reached a 2.3 pfu maximum at 15/0015Z and
ended 15/0325Z.  The greater than 10 MeV proton event that commenced
13/0310Z, reached a 698 pfu maximum at 13/0925Z and ended at
15/1620Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels
today.  Solar wind speed has decreased to 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach major to severe storm levels.  A glancing blow 
from the CME late in the day of 14 December is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field by mid to late UTC on day one of the forecast
period (December 16).  Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue into December 17.  The disturbance is expected to abate to
quiet to unsettled conditions for the final day of the forecast
period (December 18).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 087
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  030/063
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  060/100
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  040/045-045/070-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    50/50/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/60/10