:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 17 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  There was a single
C-class, long duration flare at approximately 17/1711Z apparently
from Region 930 (S06W88).  A slow moving CME from the SW limb
occurred with very similar timing and may be associated with this
flare.  Given the position and slow speed of this CME, it is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 18 and 19.  On
December 20 the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to
active due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    25/15/05
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 081
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  004/005-004/005-006/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05