:Product: 1218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 18 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
disk is void of sunspots.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 19 December.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 20 December with active to minor storm conditions
likely to result and persist through the remainder of the forecast
period.  Brief isolated major storm periods may occur on 21
December.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 075
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  004/005-010/020-015/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/45
Minor storm           05/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/20