:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 19 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  No solar
activity was noted today and the visible disk remains void of
sunspots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels.  A recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on
20 December and remain geoeffective through the entire forecast
period.  Periods of isolated major storm conditions are possible on
21 December at the higher latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 073
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  010/020-015/030-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/10