:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 20 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE
has increased from approximately 600 km/s to 740 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm periods are possible at higher latitudes on 21 December. By 23
December, conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 072
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  075/075/080
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  015/030-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/40/30
Minor storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05