:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 22 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. No
activity of note was observed from old active Region 926, which is
rotating onto the visible disk near S08.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. A high speed
coronal hole stream is creating occasional active periods. Solar
wind speed increased to near 750 km/s this period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 23 December. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 24 and 25 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 073
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  010/015-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01