:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 30 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 933 (S04E78)
produced several low level B-flares.  The largest was a B3 flare at
30/0240Z.  A slow moving CME from the west limb was first observed
on LASCO imagery at 29/2130Z, with an estimated plane of sky speed
of 181 km/s.  This was likely associated with a disappearing solar
filament centered near S20W59.  A possible glancing blow from this
westward-directed CME may arrive beyond the forecast period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 31 December and 1 January.  Expect unsettled
to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods
possible at high latitudes, on 2 January as a recurrent coronal hole
moves into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 080
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  085/090/095
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/005-005/005-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10