:Product: 1231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2006 Dec 31 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2006
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 933 (S02E66) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 31/1717Z.  This region is classified as a DAO beta
sunspot group.  A very slow CME off the west limb was first observed
on LASCO imagery at 30/2230Z.  This CME appears to be back-sided and
is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 01 January.  Unsettled to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected on 02 and 03 January, due a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 083
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  085/090/095
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  005/005-015/025-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor storm           05/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/10