:Product: 0104RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jan 04 2204 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (05 - 07 January). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 640 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (05 - 07 January). Active periods are possible on 07 January due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jan 089 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/25 Minor storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05