:Product: 0118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jan 18 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active as a coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 19 January. On 20 and 21 January, conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 077 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 084 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 015/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/012-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/10 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01