:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Jan 19 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was first
observed in LASCO imagery at 19/0430 UTC with an approximate plane
of sky speed of 620 km/s. The CME was most likely a backside event
and not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
remains elevated around 660 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 20 January. On 21 and 22 January, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 076
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01