:Product: 0124RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jan 24 2204 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 939 (S04W69) continued to produce small flares and has shown some simplification since yesterday. A long duration B9 flare occurred at 24/1452 UTC from beyond the east limb, near SE07. The flare was associated with a CME visible in the NASA LASCO data. The source of this activity is presumed to be the returning area of old Region 933 (S06, L=034). Sunspots are not yet visible at the limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to increase over the next few days as the new region rotates onto the visible disk, C-class flares are expected and M-class flares may occur, depending on the complexity of the area. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan Class M 10/15/20 Class X 01/05/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jan 080 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 084 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05