:Product: 0125RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jan 25 2204 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity reached low levels. A long duration C6.3 flare occurred at 25/0714 UTC off the east limb around S08. An associated asymmetric halo CME was first observed on LASCO imagery at 25/0654 UTC. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the east limb with an approximate plane of sky speed of 1260 km/s. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class activity from the approaching region on the east limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 26 and 27 January. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 28 January. III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan Class M 15/20/20 Class X 05/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jan 080 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 080/085/090 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/30 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05