:Product: 0130RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Jan 30 2204 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 940 (S04E21) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 941 (S06E56) has remained quiescent. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 940. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 650 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods on 31 January. Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 01-02 February. III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 088 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 019/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/015-010/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01