:Product: 0209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 09 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Old Region 940 (S05,L=043) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 08/2246Z. LASCO imagery observed a CME shortly after the event which appeared to have a western trajectory and is most likely not Earth directed. Region 941 (S07W75) was stable and underwent little change during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 February. Late on 11 February, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective with periods of active to minor storm levels possible. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected on 12 February due to the coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 077 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 077/076/074 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 084 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-012/015-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/40 Minor storm 05/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/10/15