:Product: 0214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 14 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions. An isolated minor storm period was observed between 13/2100 - 2400 UTC. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 660 km/s. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 15 February. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 16 and 17 February. III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 073 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 013/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 008/010-008/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05