:Product: 0215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 15 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. An isolated minor storm period was observed at middle latitudes between 15/0300 - 0600 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE continues to be elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 16 February. III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 074 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01