:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 16 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity reached low levels. A C1.7 flare occurred at 16/0156 UTC, which likely originated from newly numbered Region 942 (S13E69). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 942. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE decreased from approximately 640 km/s to 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 075 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/26/15 Minor storm 10/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/04/01