:Product: 0217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 17 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The sole spot group, Region 942 (S11E55), was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to slightly unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through February 20. III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 075 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05