:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 19 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 493 (S12E04) was numbered today. This region produced a C1/sf event at 19/0010 UTC. Eight minutes after the C-class event, a Type II radio sweep was observed with a speed of 500 km/s. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. An isolated C-class event is possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 075 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05