:Product: 0223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Feb 23 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 944 (S03E61) retains its alpha magnetic configuration. Region 942 (S11W26) is in decay. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 24 February. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, on 25-26 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. There is a chance for isolated major storming at high latitudes on 25 February. III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 075 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 005/005-015/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/25 Minor storm 05/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/35/30 Minor storm 10/25/20 Major-severe storm 01/15/10