:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Feb 23 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 944 (S03E61)
retains its alpha magnetic configuration.  Region 942 (S11W26) is in
decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 24 February.  Expect unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, on 25-26
February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  There
is a chance for isolated major storming at high latitudes on 25
February.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 075
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  078/080/080
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  005/005-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/35/30
Minor storm           10/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/15/10