:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2007 Apr 30 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2007
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There was slight decay in
penumbral area on the trailing edge of Region 953 (S10E09), however,
the spot group is maintaining a beta gamma delta magnetic
classification. New Region 954 (S05E29) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from
approximately 680 km/s to 570 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (01 - 03
May).
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 087
Predicted   01 May-03 May  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01