:Product: 0430RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 Apr 30 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There was slight decay in penumbral area on the trailing edge of Region 953 (S10E09), however, the spot group is maintaining a beta gamma delta magnetic classification. New Region 954 (S05E29) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for an M-flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Activity was due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 680 km/s to 570 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period (01 - 03 May). III. Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 15/15/15 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 087 Predicted 01 May-03 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 016/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01