:Product: 0501RSGA.txt :Issued: 2007 May 01 2203 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2007 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only low level B-class flares were observed. Region 953 (S12W04) has decreased in area to around 440 millionths and has weakened to a beta-gamma magnetic class. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 953. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed at the Boulder Magnetometer between 01/0600 - 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the forecast period (02 - 04 May). III. Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 10/10/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 086 Predicted 02 May-04 May 085/085/080 90 Day Mean 01 May 074 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01